Raton, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

461
FXUS65 KABQ 031718 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1018 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

 - Low clouds and areas of fog look to produce very low visibility
   and slick travel conditions across the east slopes of the
   central mountain chain and nearby highlands through mid
   morning.

 - There will be a low chance of stray rain showers and high
   terrain snow showers over the southern fringe of the forecast
   area Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 135 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

The weather pattern will be slow to change with generally fair
conditions persisting through much of the week, as an upper level
ridge of high pressure gradually disappears. This will keep dry
air over most of northern and central New Mexico with relatively
light winds, but some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has seeped
into southeastern and some central areas of the state. This
moisture will be slow to leave, leading some areas of low clouds
and fog. Temperatures will tend to stay near to slightly above
normal this week with chilly nights and mild daytime readings. A
weak low pressure system will try to sneak south of New Mexico
late in the week into the weekend, and this could spread some
light rain and mountain snow over south central to southeastern
areas of the state, but minimal precipitation amounts are
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Moist southeasterly flow is underway in eastern NM, allowing low
clouds and some fog to creep northwestward from the plains toward
the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Currently freezing
fog is being observed in the central and south-central highlands and
this will likely spread northward into the northeast highlands this
morning. While dense fog is less likely in the east-central and
southeastern plains, wouldn`t be surprised if some patchy fog
develops over the Caprock. Positive theta-e advection could help
squeeze a few sprinkles out of this moisture as well, but these will
be few and far between. South to southeast winds will begin to turn
more westerly by late morning, ridding the region of any lingering
fog. A weak upper-low will approach the area today, doing little to
impact the sensible weather. There is hardly any moisture associated
with it so it will do little other than create some breezy southwest
winds in the eastern third of the state this afternoon. Low-level
moisture will remain entrenched across the southeast plains tonight,
but a more westerly downsloping component to the wind should help to
keep fog from developing. The Low nudges closer on Wednesday as a
weak backdoor front intrudes from the northeast. The airmass behind
the front will be slightly drier and cooler and overall unimpactful.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

The upper cut-off low will move very little over southern AZ
Wednesday night into Thursday, placing some faint diffluence aloft
over NM, mainly the southern tier of counties/zones. In addition,
through Thursday afternoon, higher surface dewpoints in the 30`s F
will continue to seep over southern and some eastern areas of NM
while the boundary layer will destabilize some (lifted indices
dropping to near 0 to -1 C). This should yield scattered,
diurnally-driven showers with high snow levels (above 9,000 ft)
in the afternoon with very light and minimal QPF.

Model solutions from both deterministic and ensemble means have
now diverged for Friday with the GFS family being more
progressive and drawing the center of the low into Chihuahua while
the ECMWF family lags behind, keeping the low over the upper Gulf
of CA. The GFS solutions would suggest a bit more (but still
weak) forcing aloft and potentially more coverage of the isolated
to scattered scant shower activity over southern NM. However,
cluster analysis of four groups within the Grand Ensemble all
reveal light QPF over these southern areas of the state.
Otherwise, not much temperature or other sensible weather element
changes would result from either family or cluster of solutions.
These trends would continue into Saturday and Sunday with the
ECMWF family and slower clusters only dragging the remnants of
the low over central NM by late Sunday afternoon while the GFS
family and faster clusters speed it ahead toward the Red River
valley of OK/TX.

More dynamic changes would be forthcoming though, as the flow will
buckle abruptly as polar air builds and plunges southward into
Monday and Tuesday. The stronger baroclinic zone would be
accompanied by a stout jet that would lead to breezy to windy
conditions on Monday, preceding the cold air advection that would
send Tuesday`s high temperatures below normal. Rain and snow would
favor northern NM, but could dip into central areas with lowering
snow levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Dense fog producing LIFR/IFR visibility over sections of central
and eastern NM is lifting this hour. Visibilities are returning to
MVFR/VFR in these areas, with widespread VFR forecast all areas
the rest of the day after low clouds clear out. Low clouds at or
just above 030 (MVFR) will persist longer across these same areas
into the afternoon. KTCC is well on its way and will likely see
bkn skies lessen to sct by 18Z. Areas near and around K0E0 to KSXU
to KSRR will be last areas to see SKC fill in sometime b/w 19Z to
21Z. Winds will remain light through the TAF period, with a
northerly terrain drive drainage wind at KSAF forecast to reach
gusts of 15-20kts will be lone exception tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

Low stratus and patchy fog will persist through at least late
morning from the east slopes of the central mountain chain to the
eastern plains. Fog should end by late morning, but low clouds
should linger through most of the day in at least southeastern
areas. Ventilation will be poor in most areas today, with the
exception of east-central and northeastern areas where breezy
southwest winds develop this afternoon. A weak backdoor front
invades from the northeast Wednesday, doing little other than
changing the wind around to the east. A weak, moisture starved low
will hang out around the desert southwest through the week,
eventually ejecting across the state this weekend. As a result, the
weather will change little from day-to-day through Sunday. A winter
storm may bring stronger winds and snow to at least the northern
mountains early next week, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  21  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  18  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  53  25  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  58  14  54  18 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  56  28  54  22 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  56  19  55  21 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  60  24  55  24 /   0   0  10   0
Magdalena.......................  55  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  55  29  54  26 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  65  21  61  23 /   0   0  10   5
Glenwood........................  66  33  64  33 /   0   5  10   5
Chama...........................  51  21  51  18 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  50  32  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  54  31  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  50  26  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  45  21  44  15 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  49  13  47   4 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  53  19  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  57  27  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  57  20  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  31  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  53  25  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  37  58  32 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  28  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  31  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  57  24  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  30  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  24  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  30  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  26  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  34  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  30  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  60  31  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  31  53  29 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  54  33  55  31 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  54  29  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  23  57  20 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  51  29  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  55  31  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  55  32  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  58  36  60  34 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  34  57  26 /   0   0   5   5
Capulin.........................  49  28  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  51  24  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  52  21  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  55  28  54  24 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  54  34  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  50  28  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  57  30  61  28 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  54  33  58  28 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  35  59  27 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  55  39  61  32 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  56  40  62  30 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  38  60  29 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  41  63  39 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  53  36  62  34 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  33  63  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24